Not the Pope Trads Deserve; the Pope the Church Needs
With increasing speculation surrounding the imminent papal conclave, attention has turned to what kind of Pope the cardinals are likely to elect. Much of the discussion, especially in mainstream coverage, centers on ideological binaries: conservative vs. progressive, traditionalist vs. reformer. But the men who will cast ballots in the Sistine Chapel are not likely to think in such simplistic terms.
What actually determines the outcome of a conclave is not media framing or popular movements, but the interplay of interests, spirituality, and personalities within the College of Cardinals. These dynamics point toward a certain type of candidate—one who represents continuity with recent papacies; not just the most recent one, commands enough trust across factions, and avoids sharp controversy.
Photo: Reuters
Such a figure is not likely to be a doctrinal innovator. Nor should we count on a forceful restorer of discipline. Instead, we can expect a pope who is doctrinally sound yet pastorally flexible—a compromise choice who can manage the ongoing tensions within the global Church.
Several names consistently surface in discussions of papabile: Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Jerusalem, and Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary.
Related: After Francis—The Interregnum
Zuppi, the president of the Italian bishops' conference, is known for his diplomatic skills and ties to the Sant’Egidio movement. He has participated in liturgical traditions that span both pre- and post-conciliar expressions of worship, and has a reputation for moderation.
Tagle, often seen as a symbolic figure representing the Church in Asia, combines an emotive preaching style with a steady, if cautious, fidelity to Catholic teaching. While once seen as a rising star, internal changes in the Curia have somewhat shifted his trajectory.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet has long been a prominent figure in the Roman Curia, having served as prefect of the Congregation for Bishops and as a close advisor on episcopal appointments worldwide. A Canadian theologian of deep learning, Ouellet offers credibility and curial experience, along with a strong record of defending orthodoxy. Though his age and past controversies may weigh against his candidacy, his profile represents a continuity option grounded in orthodoxy and competence.
Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa stands out for his work in the Holy Land, one of the Church’s most complex and diplomatically sensitive regions. A Franciscan with deep experience in interreligious dialogue, he combines a calm administrative hand with personal austerity and a knack for navigating volatile situtions. While not widely known outside ecclesial circles, his leadership style and ability to balance principle with prudence have earned him quiet respect.
Cardinal Erdő offers a different profile—a canon lawyer with intellectual heft and a record of clarity in doctrinal matters. Owing to his administrative aptitude and theological precision, he has significant appeal. But he may be perceived as too academic or too regionally specific to lead the Universal Church.
Watch Christian Wagner’s detailed video, which discusses every leading candidate in depth, here:
Wagner is right that none of these churchmen can be described as heterodox. All are, in their own ways, faithful sons of the Church who have operated within the boundaries of orthodoxy while navigating the demands and tensions of their respective ecclesial roles.
These facts suggest that the next pope will likely continue the broader trend of emphasizing pastoral outreach without trying to change doctrine. In practical terms, that means we can expect a pontificate that upholds Catholic teaching while showing patience toward local variations in pastoral approach.
For the faithful, that’s a reassurance and a call to vigilance. The Church will not face a radical departure from tradition, nor is a sudden return to strict discipline likely. Instead, the hierarchy will continue along the same path it has walked for some time: firm in truth on paper; flexible in tone and practice.
The best attitude for laymen is patient perseverance. The upcoming conclave’s resuslt will not satisfy everyone. But the current structure of the College of Cardinals, and the kind of consensus it is capable of producing, suggests neither a Modernist radical nor a staunch traditionalist in store. We will not get the pope traditionalists deserve, but the pope the Church needs now.
In the final analysis, the Church remains under the guidance of the Holy Spirit. And whatever challenges lie ahead, her foundations on the Rock are secure.
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